A recent survey of the world’s fossil fuel reserves has revealed that burning what is left of global supplies would produce emissions on a scale far higher than what was previously estimated.

The analysis, the first ever registry of global oil and gas reserves, determined that combustion on that level would release more than seven times the emissions allowable on our remaining “carbon budget” — the emission quota past which climate targets will no longer be met.

A collaboration between Carbon Tracker and the Global Energy Monitor, the registry uses comprehensive data gathered from more than 50,000 mines and oil fields across 89 countries, accounting for three quarters of global fossil fuel production.

“These tools for the first time provide an open source of information on carbon in the ground, an essential step toward reining in fossil fuel production and reining in climate change,” Ted Nace, the executive director of Global Energy Monitor, told The Weather Network (TWN).

Construction cranes stand silhouetted by the sunset at the Golden Pass LNG Terminal in Sabine Pass, Texas, on April 14, 2022. Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum, began as an import terminal and construction seen today will create export capability. (The Washington Post/ Getty Images)

The registry is the first database on fossil fuel production and reserves that is available to the public, and the first to track the impact this remaining supply promises to have on the carbon budget.

While much of the data recorded here has been available to the fossil fuels sector, making the information public will be a game-changer to climate analysts.

“Oil companies are not lacking in information. One of the key parts of OPEC's strategy has always been to keep a tight lid on information about reserves in the OPEC countries; by controlling information, you have more leverage to dictate prices,” Nace said.

“But this leaves global civil society — tens of thousands of NGOs, academics, activists, media organizations — suffering from information poverty, effectively paralyzing or at least diminishing substantive public discourse,” he added.

The research estimates that burning all of the remaining global supply would produce more than 3.5 trillion tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the United States and Russia alone holding enough reserves to exceed the carbon budget.

Though, as the registry notes, “the most potent source of emissions is the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, which produces approximately 525 million tons of carbon emissions each year.”

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The analysis also determined that about 80 per cent of oil reserves in this country would have to be left in the ground for Canada to achieve Net Zero by 2050.

Such findings reflect similar research from a year ago which showed that most carbon reserves must stay in the ground, with oil and gas production slowing by three per cent annually up to 2050, if the target of 1.5°C of warming is to be met.

“We know we have an overhang of carbon, and that overhang is far in excess of what we could burn to safely meet climate targets,” Robert Schuwerk, executive director of Carbon Tracker’s North America Office, told TWN.

“What the registry is going to be able to do is show that these are not isolated decisions that should be made without consideration of the wider climate context,” Schuwerk added.

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This emphasis on the supply side of the combustion equation is often ignored. Even the Paris Agreement “does not mention fossil fuels, despite the fact that such fuels account for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions,” according to the registry.

The registry will give policymakers and other analysts the tools they need to make informed decisions about the production side of the fossil fuel sector — including new builds like the Bay du Nord project off the coast of Newfoundland, which was recently greenlit by the Liberal government.

“The aim of the registry is to get not just that big picture at country level, but to drill down to the field level where decisions about licensing, project sanctions, development, and continued operation are made,” said Schuwerk.

The registry may force governments to pause in the future before rubber stamping projects like Bay du Nord.

“These tools will open up new ground for research and action by civil society and governments,” added Ted Nace. “What we're aiming to do is to empower a lot more voices.”

Thumbnail image: Aerial photo taken on Dec. 12, 2021, shows workers inspecting an oil well at Jidong Oilfield in north China's Hebei Province. (Liu Mancang/Xinhua via Getty Images)