Canada's 2021 Fall Forecast: Savour pleasant weather while it lasts
Will it be a more traditional fall season across Canada, or is winter lurking just around the corner? Here's what to expect over the next three months.
Historic heat, severe drought and wildfires dominated headlines across Canada during the past summer. However, summer heat quickly gave way to more typical early fall weather across Canada during early September. Can we now expect a more traditional fall season across Canada? Or is winter lurking just around the corner?
While most of Canada saw an early arrival of cooler early fall weather, warm weather is not finished with much of Canada just yet. Late September and October will feature periods of pleasant fall weather with near seasonal or above seasonal temperatures.
Here is a look at our temperature forecast for the remainder of September, October and into November.
SEE ALSO: Why do leaves change colour in the fall?
Most of Canada should see near normal or above normal temperatures, with the warmest weather relative to normal extending from southern Manitoba to Newfoundland.
However, we do expect a pattern reversal late in the season. For Ontario, Quebec and parts of the Maritimes, this should bring a quicker start to winter than we have often seen during the past 25 years. We have become accustomed to very mild Decembers, but this year should bring more typical amounts of winter weather during the weeks leading up to and through the holidays.
Meanwhile, across Western Canada, we expect that the arrival of consistent cold weather will be temporarily delayed.
Across most of Canada, we expect near normal precipitation totals for the fall season. However, for most of B.C., we expect above normal precipitation. Most of Atlantic Canada could also end up wetter than normal as the tropical season continues to be very active.
Below is a more detailed look at what we expect across Canada over the next three months:
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Near normal temperatures are expected across most of B.C., but southern areas should be slightly warmer than normal. A typical number of fall storms and rainy days are expected, but this should result in above normal precipitation totals as moisture-laden systems will bring a heightened risk for excessive rainfall at times. Mild temperatures are expected for the end of fall and continuing into December.
WHAT’S TO FOLLOW B.C.’S HISTORIC SUMMER:
ALBERTA
Near normal temperatures and precipitation are expected across Alberta. This will be quite a contrast to the drought conditions that dominated the year so far, helping to replenish the groundwater supply. While many areas have already seen an early frost, warmer than normal weather is expected to dominate during the final week of September and continue through early October. Of course, a normal fall will typically include a few shots of early winter weather. However, we expect that the arrival of consistent cold will be delayed with above normal temperatures expected for December.
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
Alternating periods of above normal and below normal temperatures should come close to offsetting each other from mid-September through December, resulting in near normal or slightly above normal temperatures for the season. Parts of the region have already seen an early frost, but warmer than normal temperatures are expected to dominate during the final week of September and continue through early October. Precipitation totals are expected to be near normal, which will help to replenish the groundwater.
FROST RISK COULD MEAN EARLY END TO GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE PRAIRIES:
ONTARIO
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to dominate the heart of the fall season, with extended periods of fair weather and warmer than normal temperatures during the second half of September and October. This should provide excellent opportunities to get out and enjoy the fall foliage.
However, a pattern change during late fall should bring an earlier arrival to winter weather, and more winter weather leading up to the holidays than we have often seen over the past 25 years. While there have been a few notable exceptions, we have become accustomed to very mild Decembers.
However, this year should bring more typical amounts of winter weather during the weeks leading up to and through the holidays. A typical December can still bring some rain and bare ground at times, but overall we expect that the weather during December will be more suitable for skiing than golf. This should include an abundance of lake effect snow across the traditional snowbelts, which are located east and southeast of the Great Lakes.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE STORM TRACK IN ONTARIO:
QUEBEC
Extended periods of fair weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected during the second half of September and at times during October. This will provide excellent opportunities to get out and enjoy the fall foliage. However, a pattern change during late fall is expected to bring more consistent winter weather than we have often seen over the past 25 years for the weeks leading up to the holidays. This should allow for a strong start to the ski season.
IT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE MONTH-TO-MONTH IN QUEBEC:
ATLANTIC CANADA
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to dominate the fall season, along with the typical number of fall storms. However, an active hurricane season is expected to continue, so we will continue to keep an eye on the tropics and the potential for a couple of systems to bring excessive rainfall totals to parts of the region. Near normal temperatures are expected for December.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA:
NORTHERN CANADA
Near normal temperatures and precipitation are expected across the Yukon, while above normal temperatures and precipitation are expected for eastern Nunavut, including Iqaluit. The coldest weather relative to normal is expected to shift from near Hudson Bay to western parts of the N.W.T. in mid-fall.
