Cloudy, with a chance of an eclipse? Odds have changed in these regions
While a portion of Canada and the U.S. will end up with a clear view of the solar eclipse, the most ideal spots have shifted since our last look. Odds have changed to favour some areas while others could be sitting in the dark, but without the view
The much-anticipated solar eclipse is just around the corner, so what is the forecast telling us now about what to expect on Monday, April 8?
Well, plenty of new details have emerged since we last took a peek at the forecast on Monday, April 1. The news won't be so good for many in North America.
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As we look at the weather models, what we see as of Wednesday, April 3 is an increasing chance of cloud cover for millions of Canadians, putting a damper on the event for some major cities.
There is, however, a likelihood for millions to view the eclipse as the pattern is conducive for sinking air and clearer skies. Which side will you be on?
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Breakdown of where the forecast favours a good viewing and where it doesn't
While many Canadians won't like this updated forecast, there is a likelihood of additional shifts and changes in the days leading up to it.
The good news is that a part of Canada remains one of the go-to places.
Ontario: It may not be what you want to hear, but confidence has grown that there will be clouds in Ontario on Monday. A system in the U.S. Plains will likely usher in high- to mid-level clouds by the afternoon. The bright side, however, is these cloud types typically do not fully obstruct your view from the sun.
So, forecasters will be asking the question: How much sun can we see through the cloudy veil? It is still variable if it will only affect southern Ontario, or move into eastern Ontario, too. Hamilton, Niagara, Kingston and Cornwall, Ont., are all at risk. The timing of the system’s fronts will be closely monitored through the weekend, so make sure to check back for another revision.
Quebec and New Brunswick: Things improve outside of Ontario. In fact, some of the best viewing odds will be found in eastern Quebec and most of New Brunswick. A ridge of high pressure will offer limited cloud cover on eclipse day, making it our continued go-to spot in Canada and, in fact, all of North America.
Cities such as Sherbrooke and Saint-Georges, Que., and Hartland and Fredericton, N.B., continue to look to be in good shape for Monday. Local cloudy factors may still play a role, intricate details that will be nailed down this weekend.
Newfoundland: In Canada, some of the worst eclipse-viewing odds exist in Newfoundland, including Bonavista, Gander and Clarenville. That can be attributed to a slow-moving system that will likely bring in thick, low-level clouds, onshore winds, and perhaps even precipitation in the afternoon.
This brings a possibility that the sky during the event gets fully obstructed. If you're eager to view the once-in-a-lifetime event, consider the southwestern coast, Port aux Basques, N.L., or heading to New Brunswick for better forecast odds.
U.S.: The forecast update didn't reveal any change for the southwestern states, as they remain in poor odds for viewing the eclipse because of an incoming low that will blow cloudy skies into Texas and Arkansas.
There will be some ideal viewing north of that cloud deck, however, and south of the one affecting Ontario. When you head north, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio have a fair shot of getting a good view, but there is still plenty of model uncertainty at this time.
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Ironically, climatology was not a factor at all for the southwestern states this year. In fact, it got it all wrong. Historical cloud cover data during early April favours the south-southwestern end of North America with the greatest percentage of clear skies, with Mexico and Texas normally seeing 20 to 40 per cent cloud cover.
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Check back with The Weather Network as we continue to update the eclipse forecast leading to and on April 8.
