High pressure looks to spare the U.S. Gulf states from Hurricane Rafael impacts
Rafael took a violent toll on Cuba as a major Category 3 hurricane, but its current track now looks to spare much of the U.S. Gulf states from direct impact
Rafael made landfall in western Cuba as a major, Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, with flooding rains and violent winds taking a severe hit on the island. Cuba's national electrical grid collapsed on Wednesday as a result of the storm.
This was the first Category 3 hurricane to hit Cuba since Ian in 2022, but the second hurricane to hit the already vulnerable region in recent weeks.
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Although it has since weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, Rafael is anticipated to continue bringing life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rain to parts of the country. An additional 50 - 100 mm of rain is forecast through Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 300 mm across western Cuba.
"This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain," says the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
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U.S. looks to remain largely out of harm's way
As Hurricane Rafael crossed Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, its impacts reached as far as Georgia, and South Carolina bringing heavy, flooding rains.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, but on a much different path than originally anticipated. When it first formed, it looked as though Rafael was heading straight for the U.S. following its devastating Caribbean impacts.
High pressure is strengthening and dominating the Gulf states, however. This will help to push back on Rafael, forcing a track much further west than anticipated pre-landfall.
Rafael will be forced west into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and will likely slow, and be interrupted by dry air.
While there is still a lot uncertainty 48+ hours out, computer models are currently trending towards a west-southwest movement, with a second high developing over Mexico into next week. These updates are becoming more favorable to spare the Gulf states from a direct hit, and keep much of the U.S. largely out of harm's way.
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Rough surf however, is still expected along the coast, so it's best to stay up-to-date on any warnings that are issued as Rafael continues to move.
