Is Vancouver International Airport destined for a snowless winter?
As we enter a winter with a strong El Niño in place, the firm correlation between the atmospheric phenomenon and the lack of low-elevation snowfall in B.C. cannot be understated.
Is Vancouver destined for a snowless winter? It's quite likely.
Vancouver International Airport (YVR) reported snowfall on Dec. 9, but no accumulation was recorded. It’s a far cry from December of 2008 when nearly 90 cm of snow fell at YVR.
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That snow season was amongst the snowiest in history, amassing more than 100 cm at sea level.
As we enter the winter season, a strong El Niño has its grip on the equatorial Pacific Ocean, west of South America –– the first since 2015.
The winter of 2015-16 only brought a single centimetre of accumulating snow to YVR airport, with the previous winter even worse, seeing just a trace reported during the 2014-15 season.
The strong correlation between El Niño and the lack of low-elevation snowfall cannot be understated.
Here's the list of snowless winters at YVR (which, keep in mind, is at sea level). Higher elevations of Metro Vancouver, and certainly Simon Fraser University, likely reported accumulating snowfall, even during these El Niño years.
None of these years occurred during La Niña, except for 1944-1945, which was classified as neutral. The remaining years were of varying magnitudes of El Niño.
The 2014-15 season featured a weak El Niño, along with the winter of 2002-03.
But, the winter of 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1957-58 all featured a strong El Niño.
It’s a similar story if we extend the timeframe to cover the entire snowfall season from November to April.
The only strong El Niño in the historical data that produced an above-average snowfall year was the 1965-66 snow season, but even that strong El Niño became a moderate one by late winter.
The pattern shows promise for ski resorts along the coast as we approach Christmas. An onshore flow without massive spikes in freezing levels is probable. It'll be quite the Christmas gift as we push through the holiday season.
