A white Christmas upset in the making for a major Canadian city
A warm pattern draped over Canada may leave many folks wondering: Where's the snow on Christmas morning?
Bare ground on Christmas morning is nothing to croon about, but it’ll be reality for millions of Canadians as they wake up on Monday and gaze upon a horizon lacking its characteristic blanket of wintry white.
A widespread spell of above-seasonal warmth covering the country from coast to coast will keep the vast majority of the population snow-free at sunrise on Monday, Dec. 25.
And at least one major city is looking at a surprise upset in the snowfall department come Christmas morning.
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The ubiquitous crackle of Bing Crosby’s war-era nostalgia about Christmases he used to know cemented the notion of a white Christmas in the minds of every generation that followed.
Canada is one of relatively few countries in the world where most folks have decent odds of a blanket of snow on the ground come Christmas morning. An official white Christmas occurs when observers measure at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Dec. 25.
An unusually warm month like the one we’re wrapping up now, though, can break the trend in some surprising places.
An unblemished streak may fall in the East
Most folks across Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada will see a ‘green’ Christmas this year, going without so much as a trace of snow sticking around as temperatures rise well above freezing as the big day fast approaches.
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The chance of a snowy Christmas in Toronto and Halifax sits at a whopping zero per cent. Sorry, kids.
The odds of 2 cm of snow on the ground are relatively low farther north around Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City –– the latter of which has seen a white Christmas 93 percent of the time since 1990.
This spell of warmth is especially unusual across Quebec in particular, where Saguenay and Baie-Comeau risk seeing their first-ever snowless Christmas this year.
Western Canada
If you’re looking for snow on the Prairies, your best bet is to head north or east. Whitehorse and Yellowknife will certainly see a white Christmas this year, and the great people of Fort McMurray have a high chance of waking up to a blanket of snow on the ground.
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And, surprise! After a few centimetres of snow Friday night in Calgary, you, too, have a high chance for a White Christmas. Proof that miracles do come true.
A system moving east across the Prairies this weekend will drop light snowfall totals across southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario, but Winnipeg is right on the border between accumulating snow and not much at all.
It’s no surprise to longtime residents of the West Coast that Vancouver and Victoria also have a zero percent chance of snow on Christmas Day. Despite their temperate reputation, Vancouver had a memorably snowy Christmas just a few years ago.
However, holiday skiing appears to be in good shape for much of the South Coast with a chance for weekend alpine snow. A Pacific system moving ashore on Monday will send freezing levels rising, though, pushing snowfall chances higher in elevation.
Header image courtesy of Joseph Hollick.
