Where’s the snow in Toronto this season, and are we behind?
A lack of cold air this fall season could leave some ski resorts and skating rinks wishing for a different weather pattern
Where’s the snow, Toronto?
A very warm pattern that’s dominated Canada this fall has continued straight into this month. While we typically have to wait until December for snowstorms to arrive in Toronto, it usually snows at least a little bit during November.
Here’s a look at where we stand so far this season, and how it compares to normal.
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Even though snowstorms aren’t common this time of year, bands of snow blowing off the Great Lakes certainly should have ramped up by now.
Lake-effect snow forms when cold air flows over warm waters. Air near the surface heats up and rises through convection, creating bands of snow that blow ashore.
This year, however, there’s been a noticeable lack of Arctic air streaming over the Great Lakes, keeping the lake-effect snow machine switched off this year.
Not only have we been unusually warm for the past 30 or 60 days—but we’ve seen above-seasonal temperatures across almost the entire country for the past 90 days. This type of pattern has been more conducive to wearing shorts than grabbing snow shovels.
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Pearson International Airport averages around 9.3 cm of snow during a typical November. Last year, we only saw 3.2 cm of snow at the airport—and that total is a whopping zilch so far this month.
Other seasons have had it better in the snow department.
The earliest we’ve ever seen 5+ cm of snow at Pearson was a storm that hit on Oct. 21, 1969. Despite this year’s unfavourable pattern, November is no stranger to big snowfalls in southern Ontario. The earliest 20+ cm storm struck on Nov. 24, 1950, when 30.5 cm of snow fell at the airport.
The outlook isn’t looking too good through the middle of the month, either.
Temperatures are likely to remain warmer-than-normal for the next seven to 10 days as a renewed ridge of high pressure dominates most of eastern North America.
It’s important to remember that seasonal temperatures continue falling steadily this time of year. It won’t take much of a shift back toward seasonable or slightly below-seasonal for lake-effect snow to start cranking up.
