Looking back at Ernesto's resilient journey into Canadian waters
Ernesto's journey to Canada was one of resilience over strength.
On Aug. 12, a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean strengthened into the fifth tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—Ernesto.
From the get-go, forecasters predicted Ernesto would quickly strengthen to become the third hurricane of the season. On the heels of Tropical Storm Debby’s remnants flooding parts of southern Quebec, many Canadians in the east were left wondering how Ernesto would now impact Canada.
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Forecasters kept a close eye on Ernesto’s development over the week as it quickly strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane after it drenched Puerto Rico and barrelled toward Bermuda. The storm left over 725,000 customers without power in Puerto Rico—over half of the nation. At this point, Ernesto was expected to continue strengthening into a major hurricane as it churned toward the Atlantic’s warm waters.
GOES-East satellite image of Ernesto on Aug. 16, 2024. (NOAA)
Ernesto turned heads, however, when it weakened back into a Category 1 storm as it made landfall over Bermuda during the early hours on Aug. 17. By the time it left the archipelago, around 5,400 customers were without power, and all eyes were on its track north to Canadian waters.
Impacts to Atlantic Canada
By Friday, forecasters became more confident that Ernesto’s track would veer to the east and miss most of Atlantic Canada. But forecasters were also more confident that it would be the eastern point of Newfoundland that would feel Ernesto’s tropical impacts, with the storm skirting past the Avalon Peninsula.
After making its landfall in Bermuda, Ernesto continued to weaken back into a tropical storm, although this would only be for a brief period.
The Gulf Stream, along with abnormally warm waters in the Atlantic from climate change, gave Ernesto the extra boost it needed to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday, Aug. 18.
By Sunday evening, Ernesto was about 300 km south of St. John’s, N.L. It was starting to show signs of disorganization once more, but its remarkably resilient core managed to hold it together.
Its tropical moisture helped to fuel thunderstorms in the Maritimes on Monday as it passed to the south and it continued to chug past the Avalon’s coast, continuing the Avalon’s streak of not having a hurricane make landfall since Igor in 2010.
31.8 mm of rain fell in St. John’s N.L. on Monday, Aug. 19., and the maximum wind gust reported was 53 km/h.
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The greatest threat by far for Newfoundland was that of high surf and coastal flooding. Waves off the coast of Grand Banks were reported to reach up to 8 metres in height—taller than a standard single-story house.
The greatest impacts felt in St. John’s ended up being the heavy overnight rains and strong ocean swells. Dense fog also moved into the area, limiting visibility. Ernesto was past Newfoundland and into the North Atlantic’s cooler waters by early Tuesday morning, quickly losing its tropical fuel and degrading into a post-tropical storm.
While Ernesto never reached major hurricane status, it was still a storm to reckon with. It exceeded expectations by maintaining its hurricane-level strength and status well above the latitude where storms usually lose their tropical characteristics and become post-tropical.
All Newfoundlanders now have left to say is, “Bye, Ernie, we hardly knew you.”
With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
Thumbnail image credit to NOAA.
